Bitcoin daily outlook

How to follow it

Already holding: stay at 100%. Holding none or below 100%: you may buy up to 100%. Any time today, at the market price. On a buy day, buy up to the target if you are below it and do nothing if you are above it; on a sell day, sell down to the target if you are above it and do nothing if you are below it; on other days, do nothing.

What “Hold” means

The add conditions still hold and the model is already at 100%, so it says Hold: if you hold, do nothing; if you hold none or are below 100%, the rule “below the target, buy up to it” still lets you buy up to 100%. It is not a new entry: the first-day statistics (14 of 15) do not apply; read the run-day statistics.

Basis

Mid bull phase · 10/10 trend signals on → Hold · all signals on; add run day 8, +2% since its first day.

History

• Entering a run on days 3–10: about 79% were higher 90 days later (256 days, 36 runs; 95% interval resampling whole runs 66%–90%; a random day in the same phase about 67%, any day 62%)
• This describes how late an entry is, not a win rate of an action; days of one run move together, so read the interval that resamples whole runs.

Alerts

None

Timing

Based on the 2026-10-04 close · published 10/05 08:30 Taipei time · valid until the next one is published (usually 10/06 08:30 Taipei time). Nothing carries over: tomorrow's advice starts from tomorrow's target.

What would change it

• Stop adding (1 condition(s) missing): Fewer than 10 trend signals on: 10/10 → ≤ 9/10 → Wait (no selling)
• Sell · weakening (2 condition(s) missing, at least 3 days): Late bull phase (NUPL at or above the floating late threshold): NUPL 0.367 → ≥ 0.499; At most 8/10 trend signals, 3 days in a row: 0 day(s) (today 10/10) → 3 days → Sell
• Sell · mid bear phase (3 condition(s) missing, at least 7 days): Close below the 200-day average: $86,530 → < $71,539; 200-day average below its level 20 days ago: +1.9% → < 0; both for 7 days in a row (confirms the direction): 0 day(s) → 7 days; ✓ Mid bear phase (NUPL between 0.25 and the floating late threshold) → Sell

Target share

Target share = the share the rules put in bitcoin (of the money you set aside for bitcoin), not your position; the model follows it, so following the rule for a few days ends at the same share. Shown rounded to whole percent; a difference below 1 point is no change.

Disclosure

These rules and numbers were picked and checked again and again on the same 2012–2025 history (about 2,296 trials in all); no unseen period was kept aside to test them, and days from 2026 on are only tracked after launch. Historical shares describe the past; they are not a guarantee. Before 2017-08-17 there are no exchange daily candles: the close is the reference price of Coin Metrics Community Data (CC BY-NC 4.0), and the day's high and low are replaced by the close, which affects 3 of the 10 trend signals; from then on, exchange spot BTC/USDT daily candles. On-chain inputs (NUPL, realized price) always use the previous day's value.

Disclaimer

Computed from public rules, not from your money or your risk tolerance. The target share is the share the rules put in bitcoin (of the money you set aside for bitcoin), not your position. Historical rates describe the past and do not predict the future.